Time:
1/9-4/9 2025 from 10:00-16:00.
Place:
University of Copenhagen City Campus - Room 35.3.20, Gammeltoftsgade 13, 1355 København.
Topic:
The development of risk prediction models has exploded in recent years in the medical research literature, yet few of these make their way into routine clinical practice. A primary purpose of prediction models is often stated as being to inform clinical decision making, such as whether to give a treatment to a particular patient. However, it has been shown that prediction models are typically not designed in a way that makes them a valid tool for informing such decisions, in particular because they do not appropriately accommodate the treatment decision at their design stage. Similarly, the evaluation of prediction models does not focus on how well the model would perform for the task of informing clinical decision making. A useful model should be evaluated from the perspective of its intended use and the intended users. Evaluation should consider not only predictive performance, but also costs and benefits which are defined by the clinical context and the available resources. It should be noted that multiple possible treatment or intervention options may be available in a given disease context, yet statistical methods for dealing with potential outcomes in risk modeling are under-developed. In particular, for a medical risk prediction model to be useful, it must be developed with careful consideration of when the clinical decision is to be made, what the options are, who the risk model will apply to including what data are available at the time of the decision, and what decision is being made.
Target audience:
Anyone interested in methodological aspects of causal predictions for medical decision-making, for example statisticians, bioinformaticians, data scientists, epidemiologists. We welcome participants both from academia and industry. PhD students can request a course certificate, which may be used to obtain ECTS points for participation (contingent on approval from their PhD programs).
Teachers:
Ruth Keogh (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)
Nan van Geloven (Leiden University)
Thomas Gerds (University of Copenhagen)
Michael Sachs (SMARTbiomed, University of Copenhagen)
Erin Gabriel (SMARTbiomed, University of Copenhagen)
Karla Diaz Ordaz (University College London)
Registration:
Registration is free, but you need to register (deadline: 14/8): https://forms.gle/kC8cix43GqG8LHH38